On Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform where users bet cryptocurrency on real-world events, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $1 million before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI has skyrocketed.
The dramatic shift follows yet another delay from Rockstar Games, pushing the highly anticipated GTA VI launch to November 2026 (as reported in a recent update). In just one day, the odds on Polymarket for Bitcoin hitting the seven-figure milestone ahead of the game's debut jumped from 19% to 53%.
This market, which allows bettors to wager on which milestone comes first, has been active since May. Trading volume has now surpassed $6 million, reflecting intense interest from the crypto community and beyond. Other competing outcomes in similar "before GTA VI" markets include the release of a new Rihanna album and Donald Trump leaving the U.S. presidency.
How Polymarket Works
Built on the Polygon blockchain, Polymarket enables users to speculate on event outcomes by purchasing "Yes" or "No" shares. The market price of these shares directly represents the crowd-sourced probability: a $0.20 share implies a 20% chance of the event occurring. Winning shares pay out $1 each at resolution, while losing ones expire worthless. Shares can be traded freely on the platform, functioning like a mini stock exchange for predictions.
This mechanic has propelled Polymarket to mainstream relevance. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the platform's market on the race outcome alone saw over $3 billion in trading volume. Increasingly, Polymarket's probability assessments are cited outside crypto circles, influencing discussions in traditional media and pop culture.
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Why the Sudden Spike?
The latest odds surge underscores the crypto world's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin amid ongoing market cycles, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors. Rockstar's repeated delays - GTA VI was originally slated for 2025 - have only amplified the timeline advantage for BTC proponents.
With the game now over a year away, bettors are piling into "Yes" shares, betting that Bitcoin's price trajectory will outpace even the slowest AAA game development.
As of now, the market remains volatile, with shares trading actively. Whether Bitcoin can climb from its current levels (around $70,000 - $80,000) to $1 million in under two years is a moonshot bet - but on Polymarket, the crowd is speaking loud and clear.
