14.10.2025 06:09

Why Have a Stock Market at All?

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OpenAI’s journey stands as Silicon Valley’s boldest experiment yet. The ChatGPT creator plans to burn through $115 billion by 2029, a figure no company has ever intentionally targeted. For context, Uber, Tesla, Snap, and Netflix combined torched just $42 billion during their most extravagant years.

The typical Silicon Valley playbook is straightforward: secure initial funding, launch a product, attract billions for growth, acquisitions, tech, and talent, then scale prices for profit - think Amazon, Facebook, or Uber. OpenAI, however, defies this mold with its staggering ambition.

The spotlight recently fell on a $300 billion, five-year deal with Oracle, starting in 2027, under the Stargate project.

This agreement provides OpenAI with computational power and infrastructure - resources it lacks the cash to fund. With annual revenues of $10 –13 billion, OpenAI faces deficits in the near term, aiming for a break-even scale that aligns expenses and income.

Compare this to Alibaba’s record-breaking 2014 IPO, which raised $25 billion - barely enough for one year of OpenAI’s peak spending. Raising such sums privately seems daunting, especially with its nonprofit structure. Yet, progress is afoot: a memorandum with Microsoft could reshape OpenAI into an investor-friendly entity. So far, it has raised $64 billion historically, with $40 billion this year alone, valuing it at $300 billion. To hit its spending goal, another $50–75 billion is needed, excluding future contract liabilities.


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Additionally, OpenAI is negotiating to sell $6 billion in employee shares, potentially pushing its valuation to $500 billion - the highest for any private tech firm. Curiously, an IPO isn’t a priority, suggesting private funding might sustain this juggernaut.

This raises a provocative question: if private capital can fuel such ventures, is the stock market now more about trading risks and setting prices than raising capital?

The paradox deepens: amid AI’s current frenzy, OpenAI might still secure these funds. Even with a $500 billion valuation and signs of cooling AI interest, the world’s obsession with artificial intelligence ensures investors won’t sit out this race.


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