The World is Simultaneously Losing Oil, Fertilizers, and Sulfuric Acid. The Market Has Only Priced in Oil

Global supply chains are facing a triple shock that few investors appear to have fully internalized. While oil prices have surged on headlines about disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the simultaneous collapse in availability of sulfuric acid and fertilizers is amplifying the crisis across energy, food, and industrial sectors. The market has registered the energy hit. It has not yet priced in the full cascading effects.

The Sulfuric Acid Shock

The World is Simultaneously Losing Oil, Fertilizers, and Sulfuric Acid. The Market Has Only Priced in Oil Sulfuric acid is the workhorse of modern chemistry. It converts phosphate rock into fertilizers, processes copper ores, powers lead-acid and increasingly lithium-ion battery production, and is essential in semiconductor manufacturing.

When its supply seizes up, the consequences ripple through food production, electric vehicles, and chip fabs.

According to The Wall Street Journal, citing Argus pricing data and the U.S. Geological Survey, prices for sulfuric acid in China have skyrocketed roughly 1,150% compared to two years ago.

Sulfur prices in the Middle East have jumped 750%, while Chile — the world’s largest importer of the acid — has seen a 230% increase. The Persian Gulf accounts for about half of global sulfur exports. That flow is now in serious jeopardy.

The Energy Dimension

The World is Simultaneously Losing Oil, Fertilizers, and Sulfuric Acid. The Market Has Only Priced in Oil Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told investors on Monday that the world is experiencing “the largest energy shock in history.” CNBC reports that global oil supply has lost roughly one billion barrels, with net losses of 880 million after eastward rerouting and strategic reserve releases.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to just 2–5 vessels per day from a pre-crisis norm of around 70. Some 240 ships are now idling outside the strait. The market is bleeding approximately 100 million barrels per week while the chokepoint remains effectively closed.

U.S. crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have declined for four consecutive weeks and risk hitting their lowest level since 1982, per The Wall Street Journal.

Bloomberg notes that the IEA has coordinated a 400-million-barrel release of emergency reserves, yet the United States has delivered only 79.7 million of the promised 172 million barrels. JPMorgan’s global commodities head, Natasha Kaneva, has warned that OECD oil stocks could reach “operational stress” levels by June and fall to minimum operating thresholds by September.

If disruptions persist beyond mid-June, normalization could stretch into 2027.

The Fertilizer and Food Crisis

The World is Simultaneously Losing Oil, Fertilizers, and Sulfuric Acid. The Market Has Only Priced in Oil Approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Qatar Fertiliser Company, which alone supplies 14% of the world’s urea, has declared force majeure. Major fertilizer plants across the Gulf have curtailed or halted production, leaving 3 – 4 million tons per month stranded.

Urea prices (FOB Egypt) have climbed from around $400 per ton pre-crisis to $700, CNBC reports. Brazilian urea imports are down 33% year-over-year. Bangladesh has shuttered four of its five fertilizer plants. Indian facilities have cut output, and the United States faces a 25% shortfall in supplies critical for spring planting.

The World Food Programme warns that 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger within months — a faster deterioration than the 40 million driven into hunger by the 2022 Ukraine crisis over 18 months.

This is no longer just an energy story. It is a food security story.

Industrial Ripples

The shocks extend further. Aluminum, helium, and sulfur markets are all under strain. Helium, vital for semiconductor production, is tightening. Sulfur prices in Indonesia have risen more than 80%, forcing nickel producers — key for EV battery cathodes — to cut output.

Geopolitical Backdrop

The World is Simultaneously Losing Oil, Fertilizers, and Sulfuric Acid. The Market Has Only Priced in Oil President Trump rejected Iran’s latest response on Monday as “completely unacceptable” and “a piece of garbage,” stating that a ceasefire is on “massive life support.”

An Ohio-class nuclear-armed submarine arrived in Gibraltar on Sunday. Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing on May 14 –15.

Market Implications

Equity markets remain near all-time highs. Oil has moved, but the broader repricing of a world simultaneously short oil, fertilizers, and sulfuric acid has barely begun. A 1,150% jump in Chinese sulfuric acid prices, strategic reserves scraping 1982 lows, OECD stocks heading for operational crisis by September, and a looming fertilizer-induced hunger spike within three months represent three overlapping shocks. Markets have priced in one.

A critical summit in the coming days may determine which disruption is addressed first — or whether any can be resolved quickly. Until then, the triple squeeze on energy, food, and industry continues to build. The longer the Hormuz bottleneck persists, the harder it becomes to treat this as a contained energy event.