Anthropic Hits $30B ARR — Superforecaster Peter Wildeford Now Sees OpenAI + Anthropic Combined Run Rate at $240B by End of 2026

The AI revenue rocket ship just got a new thrust level.

Anthropic Hits B ARR — Superforecaster Peter Wildeford Now Sees OpenAI + Anthropic Combined Run Rate at 0B by End of 2026 This week Anthropic announced it has crossed a $30 billion annualized revenue run rate — more than tripling from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025. That number came tucked inside news of a major compute partnership with Broadcom and Google, but the real headline is the speed: from $1 billion in early 2025 to $30 billion in April 2026.

Even more striking is the reaction from the other side of the duopoly.

In an internal memo sent to OpenAI staff (first reported by The Verge), Chief Revenue Officer Denise Dresser pushed back hard. She argued that Anthropic’s reported run rate is inflated by roughly $8 billion because of differing accounting treatments: Anthropic grosses up revenue from its cloud partners (Amazon and Google), while OpenAI reports its Microsoft revenue share on a net basis.

Adjust for that, Dresser wrote, and Anthropic’s comparable figure sits closer to $22 billion — still impressive, but behind OpenAI’s roughly $24 billion run rate at the end of March.

Different methodologies, same message: the two leaders are neck-and-neck at a scale that would have seemed impossible a year ago.

The Forecast That Keeps Moving Up

Anthropic Hits B ARR — Superforecaster Peter Wildeford Now Sees OpenAI + Anthropic Combined Run Rate at 0B by End of 2026 Peter Wildeford — one of the world’s most respected superforecasters, consistently ranked in the top 20 on Metaculus — has been publicly tracking this race for months.

In January 2026 he projected that OpenAI + Anthropic combined annualized run rate would hit $130 billion by year-end.
Last month he revised it upward to $160 billion.
After Anthropic’s $30 billion reveal this week, he updated again — this time to $240 billion.

That is an extraordinary leap in just a few months. Even Wildeford’s own forecast has been forced to chase reality.

To put $240 billion in perspective: it would mean the two companies together are on pace to generate more revenue in 2026 than many entire industries.

If the number (or anything close to it) materializes, OpenAI and Anthropic would shatter the record for the fastest any company has ever scaled to $100 billion in revenue — a mark previously held by ByteDance (TikTok’s parent) and Google/Alphabet.

“Insanely Fast” Doesn’t Even Cover It

Anthropic Hits B ARR — Superforecaster Peter Wildeford Now Sees OpenAI + Anthropic Combined Run Rate at 0B by End of 2026 These are not normal growth curves. We are watching two companies that were barely at $1–6 billion combined run rate at the start of 2025 now hurtling toward triple-digit billions in a single calendar year.

Wildeford himself has called the trajectory “insanely fast.” Many observers (including this one) still view $240 billion as aggressively optimistic and $160 billion as the more realistic-but-still-wild target. But the pattern is clear: every new data point keeps forcing forecasts higher, not lower.

The market is pricing in exactly this kind of acceleration. Enterprise adoption of frontier models is exploding, compute deals are getting bigger and faster, and the winner-takes-most dynamics of the AI platform layer are playing out in real time.

Whether the final 2026 number lands at $160 billion, $200 billion, or even Wildeford’s new $240 billion target, one thing is no longer debatable: the AI duopoly is growing at a speed the technology industry has never seen before.

The only question left is how high the ceiling actually is — and how quickly the rest of the world will have to adjust to a new revenue benchmark that used to take decades to reach.