After a punishing six-week correction that erased roughly 25 % from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $108,500, the market is catching its breath at around $87,500. Traders are now asking one question on repeat: can December deliver the rebound that pushes BTC back above the psychological $100,000 mark before the year ends?
Most seasoned analysts say “probably not in December, but the real move comes in Q1 2026.” The current drawdown feels very different from the brutal 40 % crash in the first quarter of 2025, which was driven by aggressive Fed tightening and spiking Treasury yields. This time the culprit is simpler: profit-taking and year-end liquidity rotation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.1 billion in net outflows since mid-October, while institutions parked fresh capital in short-term bonds yielding over 4 %. On-chain data confirms it was distribution, not panic: exchange inflows spiked but long-term holder supply hit a new all-time high.
Technically, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-up. Bitcoin is sitting right on its 200-day moving average, RSI is neutral at 48, and the hash rate just printed another record at 680 EH/s, miners are accumulating again after the post-halving shakeout. A close above January’s opening price of ~$92,300 would already count as a constructive yearly finish and set the stage for a stronger 2026.
The Big December Catalyst: The Fed Meeting
Everything hinges on the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 decision. Markets are pricing in a 78 % chance of a 25 bps cut (to 4.25–4.50 %), but the odds have fallen from nearly 100 % a month ago as core inflation remains sticky at 2.6 %. A dovish cut would immediately loosen financial conditions and almost certainly spark a relief rally in risk assets, including crypto. History supports it: the 50 bps cut in September triggered a 12 % Bitcoin pump within two weeks. A pause or hawkish hold, while unlikely, would sting; a 10–15 % flush toward $75,000–$78,000 is already priced into perpetual funding rates.
Price Scenarios for December 31, 2025
- Base case (55 % probability): quiet Santa rally)
BTC finishes between $95,000 and $105,000. Altcoins lag slightly but Solana, Ethereum L2s and AI narrative tokens add 15–30 %.
- Bull case (30 % probability classic year-end squeeze)
Dovish Fed + ETF re-accumulation + tax-loss harvesting rebound → $115,000–$125,000 close. Altcoins outperform aggressively.
- Bear case (15 % probability macro scare)
Fed skips the cut and signals “higher for longer” → quick drop to $76,000–$80,000 before buyers step in.
Also read:
- Suno Settles with Warner Music: AI Music Goes Legit, But Free Downloads Fade to Black
- Metaplanet Raises Total Debt to $230 Million Using Bitcoin as Collateral in Aggressive Treasury Play
- Grayscale Ushers in Meme Coin Mainstream with Spot Dogecoin ETF Debut
Beyond Bitcoin
If BTC consolidates in the $85K–$95K range, capital tends to rotate into alts. Ethereum is eyeing $3,800–$4,200 on layer-2 momentum, Solana could retest $220 on meme-coin liquidity, and newer narratives (AI agents, RWA perps, decentralized robotics data) are already seeing 5–10× inflows in micro-cap tokens.
Bottom line: December 2025 is shaping up as a stabilization and distribution month rather than a moonshot. The six-week correction has washed out leverage, long-term holders are at record levels, and the macro setup into 2026 looks remarkably clean. Expect volatility, respect the Fed, and position for the real fireworks in January, not New Year’s Eve.
Author: Slava Vasipenok
Founder and CEO of QUASA (quasa.io) — the world's first remote work platform with payments in cryptocurrency.
Innovative entrepreneur with over 20 years of experience in IT, fintech, and blockchain. Specializes in decentralized solutions for freelancing, helping to overcome the barriers of traditional finance, especially in developing regions.
This is not financial or investment advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
