In a stunning development in Silicon Valley, former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati has secured a staggering $2 billion in funding for her new AI startup, Thinking Machines Lab, valuing the company at $10 billion.
This deal, led by prominent venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), is one of the largest seed rounds in history, drawing both awe and skepticism from the tech community. With no product, no public demo, and no detailed business plan — just a website and a vision — Thinking Machines Lab has ignited heated debate about the state of AI investment in 2025. Is this a bold bet on a proven leader, or a sign of an overheated market? Let’s dive in.
The Headline-Making Deal
Announced in early 2025, Thinking Machines Lab emerged from stealth with a mission to “make AI systems more widely understood, customizable, and generally capable”. Led by Murati as CEO, alongside OpenAI co-founder John Schulman as chief scientist and former OpenAI model post-training lead Barret Zoph as CTO, the startup boasts an all-star team with deep AI expertise.
Their website, https://thinkingmachines.ai, outlines a vision to address gaps in AI accessibility, customization, and scientific understanding, promising multimodal systems that “work collaboratively with people” to unlock breakthroughs in fields like science and programming.
The $2 billion seed round, reported by multiple sources including X posts, is unprecedented in its scale and structure. Murati secured unique voting rights, giving her a board vote exceeding all other directors combined, with founding shareholders’ votes weighted 100x that of others.
This level of control, combined with the massive valuation, has raised eyebrows, especially given the startup’s lack of tangible outputs.
Why the Controversy?
The tech community’s reaction, particularly on platforms like X, has been a mix of astonishment and criticism. As one user quipped, “Mira Murati launched Thinking Machine Labs last week and is now aiming to raise $1 billion at a roughly $9 billion valuation. How the heck is it valued at $9 billion?”. By April 2025, that figure had doubled to $2 billion at a $10 billion valuation, amplifying the skepticism.
The primary point of contention is simple: Thinking Machines Lab has no product. The website offers a sleek but vague mission statement, with no demo, no prototype, and no concrete business plan. As one X user noted, “Until today they have shared zero... Of anything”.
Critics argue that the startup’s $10 billion valuation rests solely on Murati’s reputation from her time at OpenAI, where she helped develop ChatGPT, and the hype surrounding AI in 2025. “I worked at OpenAI, give me $2 billion and I’ll make a cool project” has become a sarcastic refrain on X, capturing the sentiment that this deal exemplifies a frothy investment landscape where pedigree trumps substance.
Adding fuel to the fire, reports suggest that even tech giants like Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, explored acquiring Thinking Machines Lab but backed off due to disagreements over price and strategy. This underscores the speculative nature of the deal — investors are betting on Murati’s track record and the promise of AI’s transformative potential, not on a proven product.
What Does Thinking Machines Lab Promise?
According to its website, Thinking Machines Lab aims to bridge critical gaps in AI development. The company highlights three main challenges: the scientific community’s limited understanding of frontier AI systems, the concentration of training knowledge in top labs, and the difficulty of customizing AI to individual needs. Their solution? Build multimodal AI systems that are more transparent, adaptable, and capable of driving breakthroughs in domains like scientific discovery and programming.
The team’s credentials are undeniable. Murati, Schulman, and Zoph have been instrumental in some of AI’s biggest milestones, including ChatGPT and open-source projects like PyTorch and Segment Anything. Their plan to publish technical blog posts, papers, and code suggests a commitment to open collaboration, potentially differentiating them from more closed-off competitors like OpenAI. Yet, without any public deliverables, these promises remain just that — promises.
The Bigger Picture: AI Investment in 2025
The Thinking Machines Lab deal reflects a broader trend in 2025, where AI startups are commanding astronomical valuations despite early-stage development. For comparison, Ilya Sutskever’s Safe Superintelligence (SSI), another OpenAI spinoff, is reportedly valued at $32 billion without shipping a product either. The frenzy around AI investment stems from the belief that the next breakthrough — whether in multimodal models, AGI, or specialized applications—could redefine industries and economies.
However, this enthusiasm comes with risks. Critics on X and Reddit have pointed out that the lack of transparency and deliverables in such deals fuels distrust. One Reddit user speculated that Murati’s grievances with OpenAI—such as limited open-sourcing, slow multimodality development, and poor code quality—may drive her vision for Thinking Machines Lab, but questioned whether these ambitions justify the valuation without proof of execution.
Is It Worth $10 Billion?
Visit https://thinkingmachines.ai and you’ll find a polished but sparse website — a mission statement, a team page, and little else. It’s hard to see the $10 billion valuation reflected in what’s publicly available. Yet, the investment reflects confidence in Murati’s ability to deliver. Her track record at OpenAI, combined with the star power of her team, suggests that Thinking Machines Lab could produce something groundbreaking.
On the flip side, the deal raises questions about market dynamics. Are investors overpaying for hype? Is the AI bubble nearing a breaking point? The unprecedented voting structure, giving Murati outsized control, also sparks concerns about governance and accountability. If Thinking Machines Lab fails to deliver, it could become a cautionary tale for future seed rounds.
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The Road Ahead
Thinking Machines Lab has the capital, talent, and vision to potentially reshape AI development. But the pressure is on to produce results. The tech community is watching closely, and the lack of a product or clear roadmap means Murati’s team will need to move fast to justify the hype — and the $10 billion price tag.
For now, the story of Thinking Machines Lab is a microcosm of 2025’s AI landscape: immense promise, sky-high valuations, and a healthy dose of skepticism.
Whether Murati can turn her vision into reality remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: in today’s AI race, a big name and a bold idea can still command billions.
What do you think? Can Thinking Machines Lab live up to its valuation, or is this a sign of an overheated market? Share your thoughts and visit https://thinkingmachines.ai to judge for yourself.
Disclaimer: Valuations and funding details are based on reports from X and web sources, which may not be conclusive. Always verify financial information before making investment decisions.
