For the first time since the end of World War II, France has recorded more deaths than births in a calendar year, marking a structural turning point in its demographic history. In 2025, the country saw 645,000 births and 651,000 deaths, resulting in a natural population deficit of -6,000. This development, confirmed by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), signals the end of decades of positive natural growth and underscores broader trends of declining fertility and an aging population.
While France's overall population continues to inch upward due to net migration — reaching an estimated 69.1 million by early 2026 — the reliance on immigration to sustain numbers raises questions about long-term social and economic sustainability.
A Look Back: Sustained Growth in the Early 2000s
To understand this shift, it's essential to examine the demographic trajectory since the early 2000s. Data from rolling 12-month periods illustrate a clear pattern: from the start of the millennium through the mid-2010s, France maintained a robust natural increase.
Births consistently outnumbered deaths by approximately 200,000 to 250,000 annually, driven by relatively high fertility rates compared to other European nations. The peak of this era came between 2008 and 2010, when annual births hovered around 800,000 to 832,000, reflecting a total fertility rate (TFR) that briefly approached 2.0 children per woman.
A hypothetical graph plotting births and deaths over this period would show two lines: one for births starting high and stable, around 800,000 per year in the late 2000s, and another for deaths holding steady at lower levels, ensuring a consistent gap representing natural growth.
This stability positioned France as a demographic outlier in Europe, where many countries had already begun experiencing declines.
The Structural Break: Post-2015 Trends
The landscape began to change around 2015, initiating what demographers describe as a "structural break." Birth rates entered a sustained downward trajectory, dropping from the 800,000 peak to around 733,000 by 2015 and continuing to fall. By 2025, the TFR had plummeted to 1.56, the lowest since World War I and far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for population stability without migration. This represents a 24% decline in births since 2010.
Concurrently, death rates have trended upward, exacerbated by population aging. The post-war baby boom generations are now reaching advanced ages, pushing annual deaths higher — from around 550,000 in the early 2010s to 651,000 in 2025. On the graph, this would appear as the birth line steadily descending while the death line climbs, narrowing the gap until it reverses.
The COVID-19 Accelerator
The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst, sharply amplifying mortality in 2020 and 2021. Excess deaths from the virus, combined with indirect effects like delayed healthcare, pushed annual fatalities to new highs. However, the critical insight is that post-pandemic recovery did not restore pre-2015 norms.
Births continued their decline, influenced by economic uncertainties, changing social norms, and delayed family planning among younger generations. Mortality, meanwhile, remained elevated due to the inexorable aging of the population—over-65s now constitute 22% of France's residents, nearing parity with younger cohorts.
By autumn 2025, rolling 12-month data showed births dipping below 650,000 while deaths stabilized above that threshold, confirming the negative natural balance. Projections from INSEE suggest this deficit could widen, potentially reaching -256,000 by 2060 before stabilizing.
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Implications for the Future
This demographic inversion has profound implications. Without natural growth, France's population will increasingly depend on net migration, estimated at around 152,000 annually in recent years. While this has kept overall numbers rising modestly (by about 0.25% in 2024), it shifts the composition of society and could strain integration efforts.
More immediately, an aging populace will intensify pressure on pension and healthcare systems. With fewer working-age individuals to support retirees, funding challenges loom — especially as the TFR falls below assumptions used in pension forecasts (e.g., 1.8 children per woman). Policymakers may need to consider incentives for family growth, such as enhanced child benefits or housing support, alongside reforms to accommodate immigration's role.
France's experience mirrors broader European trends, where countries like Italy and Germany have long grappled with similar declines. Yet, as one of the continent's last holdouts for positive natural growth, this shift marks the closing of an era. As demographer Sylvie Le Minez noted, the rapid pace of birth declines is "one of the most striking facts" of recent years. Moving forward, adapting to this new reality will be key to maintaining France's social model in an era of demographic contraction.
