The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), once an unchallenged titan of the box office, has hit turbulent waters.
Phase 5, which concluded in July 2025 with *Thunderbolts**, has emerged as the lowest-grossing chapter in the franchise’s 17-year history, earning just $3.6 billion globally. This figure falls below even Phase 1’s $3.8 billion, a remarkable feat considering Phase 1 spanned 2008–2012 with modest budgets and untested intellectual properties.
To put this in perspective, Phase 2 grossed $5.2 billion, Phase 3 soared to an unprecedented $13.5 billion, and Phase 4, despite pandemic-related disruptions, managed $5.7 billion. The stark decline in Phase 5’s performance, coupled with critical and commercial missteps, raises a pressing question: can the MCU reverse this downward spiral, and if so, how?
A Breakdown of the Numbers
The MCU’s box office trajectory tells a story of peaks and valleys. Phase 1 laid the foundation with six films, including *Iron Man* (2008) and *The Avengers* (2012), which collectively earned $3.8 billion and proved the viability of interconnected storytelling.
Phase 2 built on this momentum, introducing characters like the Guardians of the Galaxy and grossing $5.2 billion across six films. Phase 3 was the MCU’s zenith, with 11 films, including *Avengers: Infinity War* and *Avengers: Endgame*, amassing $13.5 billion and cementing Marvel’s dominance. Even Phase 4, navigating the post-COVID landscape, delivered $5.7 billion, buoyed by *Spider-Man: No Way Home*’s near-$2 billion haul.
Phase 5, however, stumbled. Despite high-profile releases like *Deadpool & Wolverine* ($1.34 billion) and *Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3* ($845.6 million), which accounted for roughly 60% of the phase’s total earnings, the remaining films—*Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania* ($476.1 million), *Captain America: Brave New World* ($415.1 million), *Thunderbolts** ($381.9 million), and *The Marvels* ($206.1 million)—underperformed. *The Marvels* stands out as the MCU’s biggest box office bomb, grossing just $206.1 million against a $370 million budget, failing to reach even its break-even point. This internal divide, where two films propped up an otherwise lackluster slate, underscores a deeper issue: the MCU’s once-reliable formula is faltering.
What Went Wrong in Phase 5?
Several factors contributed to Phase 5’s struggles. First, the phase leaned heavily on sequels — five of its six films were follow-ups to established franchises—yet failed to capture the cultural zeitgeist. *Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania* was meant to set up Kang the Conqueror as the Multiverse Saga’s big bad, but its convoluted plot and lackluster execution led to a 70% second-weekend drop, the largest in MCU history. *The Marvels*, despite tying into popular Disney+ series like *WandaVision* and *Ms. Marvel*, suffered from a lack of audience connection and poor marketing, exacerbated by superhero fatigue. Even *Thunderbolts**, praised for its thoughtful ensemble and *Suicide Squad*-like charm, couldn’t translate critical acclaim into ticket sales, grossing only $381.9 million against a $180 million budget.
The reliance on Disney+ series as setup for theatrical releases also backfired. Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige admitted that audiences felt overwhelmed by the need to watch streaming content to follow films like *The Marvels* or *Thunderbolts**.
Series such as *Secret Invasion* and *Ironheart* failed to generate the buzz needed to drive theater attendance, with *Secret Invasion* being particularly criticized as a low point in MCU storytelling. Additionally, external factors like the 2023 Hollywood labor strikes disrupted production schedules, leading to delays and a perception of creative disarray.
Perhaps most critically, the MCU’s pivot away from Kang the Conqueror, following actor Jonathan Majors’ legal issues, left Phase 5 without a cohesive narrative anchor. The Multiverse Saga, intended to mirror the Infinity Saga’s crescendo, felt directionless, with films like *Quantumania* and *The Marvels* failing to deliver on the multiversal promise set by *Loki* and *Spider-Man: No Way Home*.
The Dawn of Phase 6: A Glimmer of Hope?
Phase 6 kicked off in July 2025 with *The Fantastic Four: First Steps*, which opened to a respectable $218 million globally, outpacing recent MCU disappointments like *Captain America: Brave New World* and *Thunderbolts**. However, its 66% second-weekend drop raised red flags, suggesting that even Marvel’s First Family may struggle to reignite audience passion.
Positioned as a standalone story in its own universe (Earth-828), *First Steps* aims to balance fresh storytelling with cosmic stakes, introducing threats like Galactus and the Silver Surfer. Yet, its performance hints at a broader challenge: audiences may be growing weary of Marvel’s formula, particularly for team-up films that lack the immediate draw of iconic characters like Spider-Man or the Avengers.
The road ahead includes *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* (July 2026), directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland, followed by *Avengers: Doomsday* (December 2026) and *Avengers: Secret Wars* (December 2027), both helmed by the Russo Brothers and featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom.
These projects are Marvel’s best bet to reverse the tide. *Spider-Man: No Way Home* and *Deadpool & Wolverine* proved that nostalgia-driven crossovers with A-list talent can still crack the billion-dollar mark, and the Avengers brand remains a box office juggernaut, with *Endgame* briefly holding the title of highest-grossing film ever. The return of Downey and the Russos, who delivered *Infinity War* and *Endgame*, is a calculated move to leverage nostalgia while introducing a new multiversal threat in Doctor Doom.
How to Save the Sinking Ship
To right the course, Marvel must address several key issues:
- Focus on Quality Over Quantity: Phase 4 and 5’s aggressive output — seven films and multiple Disney+ series in Phase 4 alone—overwhelmed audiences and diluted quality. Disney CEO Bob Iger and Feige have signaled a shift, planning no more than two to three films and two series annually starting in 2026. This leaner approach could allow for tighter storytelling and fewer production hiccups, as seen in *Captain America: Brave New World*’s reshoots and VFX issues.
- Rebuild Narrative Cohesion: The Multiverse Saga needs a clear throughline. *Avengers: Doomsday* and *Secret Wars* offer a chance to tie together disparate threads, with Doctor Doom as a unifying villain. Marvel should avoid the misstep of *Quantumania*, where multiversal stakes felt hollow, and instead deliver emotionally resonant stories that pay off setups from *Loki* and *Thunderbolts**.
- Leverage Proven Brands: *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* and the Avengers films are safe bets due to their established fanbases. *No Way Home*’s success showed that Spider-Man’s universal appeal can transcend superhero fatigue, while the Avengers brand carries unmatched cultural weight. These films must deliver spectacle and emotional depth to restore audience trust.
- Introduce New Blood Thoughtfully: *The Fantastic Four: First Steps* and the upcoming X-Men reboot, directed by Jake Schreier, are opportunities to introduce iconic teams with fresh casts. However, Marvel must ensure these films stand alone while subtly tying into the larger narrative, avoiding the alienating complexity of *Eternals* or *The Marvels*.
- Balance Nostalgia and Innovation: The return of Downey and the Russos is a double-edged sword. While it capitalizes on nostalgia, overreliance on past successes risks stagnation. Marvel should pair familiar faces with bold, standalone stories, as seen in *Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings*, which grossed $432 million despite introducing a new hero.
- Streamline Disney+ Integration: Disney+ series should complement, not prerequisite, theatrical releases. *Agatha All Along* and *Daredevil: Born Again* show promise as self-contained stories, but their impact on films like *Avengers: Doomsday* must be minimal to avoid alienating casual viewers.
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The Road Ahead
The MCU is at a crossroads. Phase 5’s $3.6 billion haul, while still substantial by industry standards, marks a humbling low for a franchise that once redefined Hollywood.
*The Fantastic Four: First Steps* has launched Phase 6 with cautious optimism, but its second-weekend drop suggests Marvel’s challenges persist.
The upcoming *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* and the Avengers double-bill are poised to capitalize on proven brands, with *Doomsday* and *Secret Wars* likely to hit billion-dollar benchmarks if they recapture the magic of *Infinity War* and *Endgame*.
However, Marvel’s long-term survival depends on learning from Phase 5’s missteps. By prioritizing quality, streamlining its narrative, and balancing nostalgia with fresh storytelling, the MCU can reclaim its box office crown. The Fantastic Four, Spider-Man, and the Avengers are Marvel’s lifeboats, but only a strategic course correction will keep this ship from sinking. As Kevin Feige navigates this uncharted territory, the world watches to see if the MCU can once again assemble greatness.
