NASA Almost Gave All Its Crew Funding to Boeing's Disastrous Starliner, Leaving SpaceX Out in the Cold

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NASA’s Commercial Crew Program: A High-Stakes Bet on Private Spaceflight

As part of its Commercial Crew program, NASA selected two private companies in 2014 to develop spacecraft capable of transporting astronauts to the International Space Station: SpaceX and Boeing.

While SpaceX’s Crew Dragon quickly established itself as a reliable workhorse, regularly delivering crews to the aging orbital outpost beginning in 2020, Boeing has faced persistent challenges with its Starliner spacecraft.

Starliner’s Troubled Crewed Test Flight

The aerospace giant’s first crewed test flight was plagued by technical issues even before liftoff in early June. Ongoing problems ultimately forced NASA to send Starliner back to Earth uncrewed last month.

Instead, astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams remain aboard the ISS until February, when a SpaceX Crew Dragon will return them to Earth.

A Near Miss: NASA’s 2014 Decision

The current situation could have unfolded very differently had NASA made a different choice almost a decade ago. As Eric Berger, senior space editor at Ars Technica, reveals in his new book REENTRY: SpaceX, Elon Musk and the Reusable Rockets that Launched a Second Space Age (published on Tuesday), NASA came remarkably close to awarding its entire Commercial Crew budget to Boeing.

An excerpt published by Ars this week details how the agency nearly allocated all funding to a single contractor. Alongside Boeing, SpaceX and Sierra Nevada also competed for the multibillion-dollar contract. Each company submitted a fixed-price bid and would receive the requested amount if selected.

Boeing, rather than undercutting competitors, requested NASA’s full budget. As Berger notes, “the gambit very nearly worked.”

Evaluating the Proposals

After evaluation, only Boeing and SpaceX remained in contention. “We really did not have the budget for two companies at the time,” NASA Commercial Crew program head Phil McAlister told Berger. “No one thought we were going to award two. I would always say, ‘One or more,’ and people would roll their eyes at me.”

Boeing requested $4.2 billion; SpaceX asked for $2.6 billion. Despite Boeing’s later difficulties with Starliner, it received an “excellent” rating for meeting NASA’s requirements, while SpaceX earned a “very good” rating.

SpaceX’s lower bid allowed NASA to consider selecting both companies. At an August 6 meeting at NASA headquarters, however, the advisory board overwhelmingly favored Boeing.

“It was not groupthink; it’s just that everyone at the time was comfortable with Boeing,” McAlister explained. “SpaceX had only been flying cargo to the space station for two years.”

Last-Minute Course Correction

At the eleventh hour, NASA hastily revised the contract to include SpaceX as a “follower” while designating Boeing the “leader” with the majority of funding.

Looking Back from 2026

Berger’s account offers a rare glimpse into NASA’s internal deliberations. In retrospect, the agency’s decision to retain both providers proved wise. SpaceX’s Crew Dragon has become indispensable, particularly as U.S.-Russia tensions following the invasion of Ukraine have reduced NASA’s reliance on Soyuz spacecraft.

Boeing’s ongoing difficulties with Starliner underscore how different the outcome might have been without SpaceX’s involvement—a narrow margin that could have significantly altered the future of the ISS and America’s presence in low Earth orbit.

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