In the ever-evolving world of technology, gamers and PC enthusiasts have faced their share of supply chain disruptions, from the cryptocurrency mining boom to pandemic-induced shortages.
But as we step into 2026, a new challenge looms: a sharp increase in graphics card prices, primarily due to skyrocketing memory costs exacerbated by insatiable AI demand.
Reports indicate that both AMD and NVIDIA are poised to hike prices early this year, with AMD leading in January and NVIDIA following in February. These adjustments could continue monthly for several months, potentially doubling MSRPs in some cases as memory expenses dominate production costs.
The Root Cause: Memory's Dominance in GPU Costs
At the heart of this price surge is DRAM and GDDR memory, which now accounts for up to 80% of a GPU's bill of materials (BOM). This shift marks a dramatic change from previous years, where GPU chips themselves were the primary cost driver. Industry insiders note that VRAM costs have tripled or quadrupled recently, directly impacting add-in-board (AIB) partners who assemble and sell the final products. For instance, a standard 16-gigabit memory module used in modern GPUs has jumped from about $5.50 in mid-2025 to over $20 by late 2025.
Projections are even more concerning: memory prices could rise another 40% by Q2 2026, as suppliers struggle to keep up with demand. Real-world examples highlight the rapidity of these changes. A 64GB DDR5 kit that cost around $195 just weeks ago has ballooned to $788 in some markets, with interim spikes to $250 and $530 along the way. This isn't isolated; similar trends affect GDDR6 and GDDR7 modules critical for high-end GPUs.
AI's Insatiable Appetite: How It Fuels the Shortage
The culprit behind this memory crunch? Artificial intelligence. AI workloads, particularly in data centers, are memory-hungry beasts. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI servers consumes roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DDR5, leading suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix to prioritize these lucrative products over consumer RAM.
AI is expected to gobble up 20% of total DRAM production in 2026, with hyperscalers like Google and Microsoft diverting supplies away from the PC market.
This "DRAM supercycle" began in Q3 2025, when AI-driven demand outpaced supply, causing global shortages projected to last until at least Q4 2027—or even into 2028, according to warnings from Micron. In 2025, fixed contracts with memory suppliers helped buffer the impact, allowing manufacturers to maintain stable pricing through inventory stockpiles.
However, as these contracts expire, the full brunt of cost increases is hitting the supply chain, forcing price adjustments across the board.
The ripple effects extend beyond GPUs. PC makers like Dell have announced hikes of $130–$230 for systems with 32GB RAM and up to $765 for 128GB configurations. AI-focused laptops with NVIDIA's RTX PRO 500 Blackwell GPUs face additional $66–$530 increases depending on VRAM capacity. Overall, PC shipments could decline by 4.9% in 2026 due to these pressures.
Specific Impacts on AMD and NVIDIA Lineups
AMD has already begun raising prices on its Radeon RX 9000 series, with some models seeing sporadic increases as early as December 2025. NVIDIA, meanwhile, is reportedly reducing output of mid-range RTX 50 series cards and directing partners to source memory independently, signaling ongoing supply constraints.
NVIDIA's RTX 50 SUPER refresh has been delayed to Q3 2026 due to these shortages, further frustrating gamers awaiting upgrades. On the AMD side, the RDNA 4 architecture's stabilization has been slow, with previous-gen cards reaching end-of-life, paving the way for broader hikes.
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What This Means for Consumers: No Discounts in Sight
For gamers and builders, the message is clear: don't hold out for deals. Industry experts advise upgrading now while some stock remains at 2025 prices, as the memory crisis shows no signs of abating. Options like pre-built PCs or the used market might offer temporary relief, but with AI's growth showing no slowdown, high-end GPUs could become luxury items. As one MAINGEAR executive put it, "We’ve already seen DRAM prices skyrocket due to the shortages and are holding off those price changes for our customers as long as we can."
In summary, 2026 shapes up to be a tough year for the GPU market, with memory costs - fueled by AI - pushing prices to new heights. While innovation continues, affordability may take a backseat until supply chains catch up.
