China’s long-term lunar plans now depend on developing its own Starship

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When Chinese space officials unveiled the design for the country's first super heavy lift rocket nearly a decade ago, it looked like a fairly conventional booster. The rocket was fully expendable, with three stages and solid motors strapped onto its sides.

By 2026, China had recalibrated the design to include a reusable first stage in response to the rapid progress of reusable rockets by SpaceX. Now, based on information released at a major airshow in Zhuhai, the Long March 9 has evolved once again—this time into a configuration that closely mirrors SpaceX's Starship.

This looks familiar

According to the latest specifications, Long March 9 will feature a fully reusable first stage powered by 30 YF-215 engines. These are full-flow staged combustion cycle engines burning methane and liquid oxygen, each delivering roughly 200 tons of thrust. For comparison, Starship's Super Heavy booster uses 33 Raptor engines, also methane/liquid-oxygen fueled, each producing about 280 tons of thrust.

The updated design also shows a fully reusable upper stage strikingly similar to Starship's second stage, complete with aerodynamic flaps in comparable positions. A presentation at the airshow indicated that China plans to fly this vehicle for the first time in 2033.

In related news, last week a quasi-private Chinese space startup, Cosmoleap, announced plans to develop a fully reusable “Leap” rocket within the next few years. An animated video released with the funding announcement showed the company aiming to replicate the “chopstick” tower-catch recovery method that SpaceX demonstrated during Starship's fifth flight test last month.

These are not isolated cases. Chinese programs—both state-run and private—have repeatedly drawn inspiration from SpaceX, as seen with Space Pioneer's earlier Falcon 9-style vehicle. Today, China's launch sector essentially watches SpaceX's progress to identify the next set of ideas worth adopting.

The real race begins to unfold

Chinese industry has long studied and, in some instances, adapted concepts from Western competitors. What stands out now is the explicit recognition that the future belongs to fully reusable launch systems, a shift embraced even by state enterprises.

In contrast, U.S. policy continues to direct NASA toward the expensive, expendable Space Launch System for years to come—funds that could otherwise support technologies capable of maintaining American leadership.

NASA and Chinese space agencies are engaged in a renewed space race, each building international partnerships to explore the Moon's south polar region and eventually establish long-term settlements. Because prime locations near the pole—especially areas with accessible water ice inside craters—are limited, the ability to land repeatedly and at scale will determine long-term advantage.

China plans to rely on the more conventional Long March 10 for its initial, short-duration lunar missions. It is counting on the far more capable, reusable Long March 9 to enable sustained operations.

Ultimately, success will not be measured by who lands astronauts first, but by which nation fields a fully reusable super-heavy-lift rocket and builds a program around that capability. The United States currently leads thanks to Starship's flight-proven status, yet the latest Long March 9 design shows China clearly understands where the finish line lies.

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