Indonesia Blocks Polymarket After Bets Appear on President Prabowo’s Early Resignation

Jakarta, May 27, 2026 — Indonesian authorities have officially blocked access to the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket within the country after users created and heavily traded markets on whether President Prabowo Subianto will leave office before the end of his term.

The Ministry of Communication and Digital Technology announced the block following the launch of a controversial prediction market on May 21. The market asked traders to bet on three possible early exit dates for the president: by May 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026.

Trading volume on the market quickly surpassed $46,000, showing significant public interest despite the low assessed probabilities.

At the time of the block, the implied odds stood at:

• 1% chance of resignation by the end of May 2026;
• 2% chance by the end of June 2026;
• 18% chance by the end of December 2026.

In an official statement, a ministry representative described Polymarket as “an online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.” The official added that the platform facilitates “betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes,” which violates Indonesian gambling laws.

“Such activities are not permissible under Indonesian legislation. We will continue to block platforms that enable illegal betting under the guise of financial or informational services,” the ministry said.

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Growing Regulatory Pressure

Indonesia has now joined a growing list of more than 30 jurisdictions worldwide that have restricted or completely blocked access to Polymarket. The platform, which allows users to bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency, has faced increasing scrutiny from regulators who view its prediction markets as a form of unlicensed gambling.

Polymarket has become one of the most prominent Web3 applications in recent years, particularly for political and election-related forecasting. However, its decentralized nature and use of crypto have put it on a collision course with governments seeking tighter control over online betting and financial speculation.

This latest block comes shortly after a separate security incident in which a hacker drained approximately $700,000 from an operational wallet on the Polygon network, though that event is unrelated to the Indonesian regulatory action.

As prediction markets continue to gain mainstream attention, tensions between decentralized platforms and national regulators are expected to intensify. For now, Indonesian users will need to use VPNs or other circumvention tools to access Polymarket, while the government signals it will maintain a hard line against platforms it classifies as gambling operators.