Remote work is very pronatal and work-life balance needs to be taken seriously if we are to solve the low fertility crisis. With return-to-office being pushed across the Federal Government, we are forced to confront a contradiction.
The administration declares it is pro-family and is eager to see more babies being born. Yet fertility rates are much higher for those with remote work.
A physical presence is crucial in many jobs. Yet many other jobs can be done with a computer from anywhere. The data on fertility is clear. At almost every age, those who work remotely have far higher fertility than those who commute (American Community Survey, chart by Stone / IFS).
Is this just a selection effect? Are would-be parents just choosing jobs with telework? The pandemic gave us a great experiment.
There was a sudden surge in remote work, but only in those occupations where that is possible. What did we see? Fertility rates surged in occupations that can be done remotely but plunged for jobs that require in-person work.
If it weren't for remote work, national fertility rates would have fallen sharply during the pandemic. Instead, there was a slight increase. Why does fertility drop as countries get rich?
One of the first observations about birthrates is that they are high for poor countries and then plummet as countries get rich. In the extreme, Korea has had a more than 100-fold increase in per-capita GDP since 1960, while its fertility dropped from 6 births per woman to just 0.75.
Why? There are many reasons but a big-one is that work/family balance is hard to achieve in advanced economies. It is very difficult to raise a family when both men and women commute and spend most of their day away from home.
Therefore, many workers opt to be childless or have very few children. Birthrates are calamitously low in almost every advanced country as a result.
Telework is a big part of the answer to this problem. If even one partner can work remotely, work-life-balance and having children becomes much more feasible.
Remote work is pronatal for a number of reasons
1 - It allows for flexibility around childcare, which is a major hurdle for family formation.
2 - It enables workers to live in homes that are much more family friendly (larger and more affordable houses further out versus small and expensive apartments in the urban core).
3 - It enables workers to live closer to support networks (such as grandparents) that can help with childcare.
Everyone can't work remotely of course. The economy depends on millions of workers who show up in person each day and would fall apart without them.
And yet the fertility benefits from remote work are huge and without it, fertility rates would be much lower still. This is a contradiction that needs to be grappled with, at every workplace, and for every job. Those jobs that can be done as well or nearly as well remotely should have that option, if we want higher birthrates.